UFOs: What to Do?

This document, titled 'UFOs: What to Do?' and authored by George Kocher for the RAND Corporation in November 1968, serves as a comprehensive overview of the UFO phenomenon from a scientific perspective. The paper is structured into five parts: historical aspects, astronomical aspects, the character of reports, phenomenological aspects, and a final section on how to proceed. Kocher begins by noting that despite 22 years of public interest, little progress has been made in understanding UFOs, largely due to misinformation and a lack of rigorous scientific study. He adopts J. A. Hynek's definition of a UFO as a reported aerial or radar return that remains unexplained after examination by competent persons.

In the historical section, Kocher argues that UFO reports are not a modern invention, citing historical documents and sightings dating back to 1917 and earlier. He discusses the modern era beginning with Kenneth Arnold in 1947 and the subsequent Air Force investigative efforts. Kocher is critical of the Air Force and CIA's handling of the subject, suggesting that official policy often aimed to debunk reports rather than investigate them, which led to the formation of civilian groups like NICAP. He also discusses the Condon Committee study at the University of Colorado, expressing hope that it would bring scientific respectability to the field.

In the astronomical section, Kocher explores the statistical likelihood of extraterrestrial life, concluding that it is highly probable that advanced civilizations exist and that interstellar travel may be possible, even if it currently exceeds our understanding of physics. The report then details the character of UFO reports, providing several case studies, including sightings in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and California. Kocher emphasizes that while many reports are 'noise,' a significant percentage (5-20%) are highly credible and warrant serious investigation. He details the phenomenological aspects, noting common shapes (discs, spheres, cigars) and behaviors (erratic movement, high acceleration, and electromagnetic interference).

Finally, Kocher proposes a plan for future study. He suggests that the transient nature of UFOs requires a responsive, central reporting agency staffed by experienced investigators who can be dispatched to 'flap' areas. He advocates for the use of existing sensor records, the encouragement of accurate press reporting, and the involvement of local scientists. The document concludes that the UFO phenomenon is a legitimate scientific problem that, if identified, could have profound implications for society.