An Operational Analysis for Air Force 2025: An Application of Value-Focused Thinking to Future Air and Space Capabilities

This research paper, titled 'An Operational Analysis for Air Force 2025: An Application of Value-Focused Thinking to Future Air and Space Capabilities,' was presented in May 1996. It details an operational analysis conducted by the Air Command and Staff College and the Air War College at the direction of the Air Force Chief of Staff, General Ronald R. Fogleman. The primary objective of the Air Force 2025 study was to generate ideas and concepts for the capabilities the United States would require to maintain dominance in air and space over the subsequent 30 years. The authors utilized a methodology known as Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) to evaluate 43 high-leverage system concepts. This approach involved constructing a value model, 'Foundations 2025,' which decomposed objectives into functions, tasks, subtasks, and force qualities. The analysis was designed to be objective, traceable, and robust, and it was tested against six plausible 'alternate futures' to ensure the findings remained valid across different political, technological, and social environments. The study concluded that the most valuable future capabilities would center on 'awareness' and the control of space. The five highest-scoring system concepts identified were the Global Information Management System, Sanctuary Base, Global Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting System, Global Area Strike System, and the Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicle. The paper also assessed enabling technologies, identifying data fusion, power systems, micromechanical devices, advanced materials, high-energy propellants, and high-performance computing as high-leverage areas. The authors noted that while the study provided a framework for future doctrine and investment strategies, it did not account for development costs or risks. The document includes detailed appendices outlining the value model, system descriptions, technology models, and scoring data, and it explicitly states that the views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect official government policy.