Take 2 of 3—Belgrade Weekly Speculates on Post-Election War Scenarios

This intelligence cable, issued by FBIS Reston on September 24, 1998, provides a summary of a Belgrade weekly publication's analysis regarding potential post-election war scenarios in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, specifically focusing on Montenegro. The report outlines a hypothetical scenario where the British aircraft carrier HMS Invincible positions itself off the coast of Montenegro. It suggests that in the event of civil disorder following elections, the Yugoslav Army might intervene. The text further alleges that 15,000 members of the British Special Air Service (SAS) would arrive to support the Montenegrin leader, Djukanovic, and that the United States would prepare NATO for an attack against Serbia. The document notes a warning from the Serbian leader, Milosevic, to US President Clinton, stating, 'Leave Montenegro or war will follow.' Additionally, the document discusses the broader geopolitical context, characterizing Western influence as a form of 'postmodern capitalism' or 'globalization' aimed at controlling national currencies and economic development. It specifically mentions pressure from a group associated with Zbigniew Brzezinski and Madeleine Albright as contributing to a dangerous situation in Montenegro, pushing the region toward the brink of civil war.