THE 2023 U.S. SENATE UAP HEARING By V.J. Ballester Olmos On April 19, 2023, a Congressional hearing on UAP was held by the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities of the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services. The hearing was specifically aimed on the mission, activities, oversight and budget of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office [AARO], by its director Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick, who presented a statement for the record and replied to questions. It lasted 59 minutes. Senator Mrs. Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat for New York), chair of the Subcommittee, made an initial address which characterized this issue as the very serious problem of unidentified anomalous phenomenon [sic]. In order to capture Mrs. Gillibrands perspective, and the nature of the pressure AARO may be feeling, it suffices to quote this sentence from her presentation: ...while we have made progress, there remains a stigma attached to this phenomenon, there is a vast and complex citizen engagement and there's also very challenging scientific and technical hurdles. Theres that stigma mantra again. False! It was USAF Blue Book Projects scientific consultant Professor J. Allen Hynek who described how ufology delivers an embarrassment of riches. Military UFO sightings, for example, have abounded since Day One back in 1947! It is quite obvious what this distinguished lady may have in mind. Dangerous expectations that may drive AAROs investigation into unexpected paths. I will not tackle her other remarks, as she knows by hearsay or is clearly influenced by UFO believers, as when she describes UAP in these terms: ...we don't know where they come from, who made them or how they operate. This assumes there exists a single operator behind the phenomenon. False again! From that assumption the logical step is that it is being conducted by intelligence. And that it is alien. However, there is no such thing as a unique UFO phenomenon -there are as many sightings and experiences as observers. When sightings are not invented, they are conventional in origin and nature, apart from some unexplained events which are devoid of exact data. Another of the obstinacies that Mrs. Gillibrand shares with hardcore ufologists is that AARO serves as an open door for witnesses of UAP events or participants in government activities related to UAP to come forward securely and disclose what they know without fear of retribution for any possible violations of previously signed non-disclosure agreements. Congress mandated that AARO set up a publicly discoverable and accessible process for safe disclosure while we know that AARO has already conducted a significant a number of interviews many referred by Congress [this is, her and her pro- UFO colleagues] we need to set up a public process... The band of politicians and ufologists behind pushing for UAP investigations clearly believe that (1) there are scores of military UFO witnesses with their mouth south for decades, and (2) that the U.S. Government has mounted devilish programs over the years to hide extraordinary UFO evidence. None of this is factual, and history will prove it -probably when those politicians are already collecting their pensions. Mrs. Gillibrand was followed by Senator Ms. Joni Ernst (Republican for Iowa), Subcommittee Ranking Member, who posed a number of questions to Dr. Kirkpatrick who pertinently responded to them before the session was declared closed. Ms. Ernst was more grounded, and was worried about the full range of threats posed by our adversaries in all domains that is what the Joint Force needs to be prepared to fight and win in defense of our nation this committee needs to know about Chinese or Russian advanced technology programs to exploit our vulnerabilities and it needs to know whether your office along with the IC [Intelligence Community] has detected potential Chinese or Russian capabilities to surveil or attack us... I cannot grasp the level of ingenuity of these people. A powerful country the United States of America is creating in 2022 a small office to study UFOs to assess the technological menaces from China or Russia? Nave politicians! Next, Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick made his opening statement. The purpose of this article is to highlight what, to my judgement, were the most significant remarks by Dr. Kirkpatrick and to make some comments about the facts and figures provided in his presentation. Unidentified objects in any domain pose potential risks to safety and security, particularly for military personnel and capabilities. This assertion must be proved. How do you compute aviation risk? One airmiss every 10 cases, every 100 cases, every 1000 cases? This is an affirmation that AARO will have to demonstrate with figures. Add this to the pending list. Dr. Kirkpatrick emphasized that AARO is still a 9-month office (with ~40 experts working). In those nine months, he claimed to have given important steps to improve UAP data collection, standardize the departments UAP internal reporting requirements, and implement a framework for rigorous scientific and intelligence analysis, resolving cases in a systematic and prioritized manner. Meanwhile, consistent with legislative direction, AARO is also carefully reviewing and researching the U.S. Governments UAP-related historical record. That is good. Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick. Director, All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO). U.S. Department of Defense. Now Dr. Kirkpatrick begs not to be too inundated and requests patience, when he says: DoD fully appreciates the eagerness from many quarters, including here in Congress and in the American public, to quickly resolve every UAP encountered across the globe, from the distant past through today. [...] it will take time to realize the full mission. We cannot answer decades of questions about UAP all at once, but we must begin somewhere. While I assure you that AARO will follow scientific evidence wherever it leads, I ask for your patience as DoD first prioritizes the safety and security of our military personnel and installations, in all domains. In exchange for patience to the impatient, radical UFO believers, he assures us that his investigation has no limits. Good negotiator! And he proudly notices they can be the last resort in UFO investigation: AARO is the culmination of decades of DoD, Intelligence Community, and congressionally-directed efforts to successfully resolve UAP encountered first and foremost by U.S. military personnel, specifically Navy and Air Force pilots. Probably, but as long as there are people believing in aliens visiting the Earth there will be people believing that the U.S. Government occults the truth, and demanding a yearned-for disclosure. Dr. Kirkpatrick cleverly advances that events can be solved, provided data are available (thus not acknowledging what has been the major fault of amateur ufology): UAP encountered first by highly capable DoD and IC platforms, featuring the nations most advanced sensors, are those UAP most likely to be successfully resolved by my office assuming data can be collected. [Underlining is my emphasis.] And he advises that this a complex job that requires multiple participation: AAROs ultimate success will require partnerships with the interagency, industry, academia, the scientific community, and the public. As I said elsewhere, it will take not only resources but also willingness to solve mysteries, with feet well on the ground and imagination secured. In only nine months, Dr. Kirkpatrick has learned the framework of the problem and recognizes the need for other views when he states that: The UAP challenge is more an operational and scientific issue than an intelligence issue. [...] Robust collaboration and peer-review across a broad range of partners will promote greater objectivity and transparency in the study of UAP. But in order to realistically achieve this, he will have to realize that elementary event data must be explicit in the reports, otherwise external assistance and assessment is precluded. Transparency starts with oneself. It is illustrated by a case further below. Dr. Kirkpatrick starts offering some preliminary conclusions: I want to underscore today that only a very small percentage of UAP reports display signatures that could reasonably be described as anomalous. The majority of unidentified objects reported to AARO demonstrate mundane characteristics of balloons, unmanned aerial systems, clutter, natural phenomena, or other readily explainable sources. While a large number of cases in our holdings remain technically unresolved, this is primarily due to a lack of data associated with these cases. Without sufficient data, we are unable to reach defendable conclusions that meet the high scientific standards we set for resolution, and I will not close a case that we cannot defend the conclusions of. Be prepared, then, to see statistics with a high percent of reports in the lack of information column, in addition to a majority of attributed sightings. And, for the remaining cases, let us know if many had proven features defying currently known performances. Now, Dr. Kirkpatrick gives us a first lesson in UAP-ufology 101, which we have been defending for decades. This was mainly devoted to believers and the impatient: I recognize that this answer is unsatisfying to those who in good faith assume that what they see with their eyes, with their cameras, or with their radars is incontrovertible evidence of extraordinary characteristics and performance. Yet, time and again, with sufficient scientific-quality data, it is fact that UAP often, but not always, resolve into readily-explainable sources. Humans are subject to deception and illusions, sensors to unexpected responses and malfunctions, and in some cases intentional interference. Getting to the handful of cases that pass this level of scrutiny is the mission of AARO. A fully accurate sentence that just needed nine months of work studying UFO cases. Let us see the standards of this handful of cases that allegedly pass this level of scrutiny, and to where they point. The statement by AAROs Director continues to remark that explained, non-exotic UAP reports can still be of national security concern. Yes, but I think that will be an intelligence or counterintelligence matter, and not his, or as he defined later in his replies, a case of SEP, somebody elses problem. Back on the difficult cases, Dr. Kirkpatrick affirms that: ...for the few cases in all domains that do demonstrate potentially anomalous characteristics, AARO exists to [...] resolve those anomalous cases. In doing so, AARO is approaching these cases with the highest level of objectivity and analytic rigor. This includes physically testing and employing modeling and simulation to validate our analyses and underlying theories, then peer reviewing the results within the U.S. Government, industry partners, and with appropriately- cleared academic institutions before reaching any conclusions. OK - resolution is the key word. And solving 100% of fully documented events will have to be their target for success. The application of top scientific rigor is precisely what this job calls for. Still, I observe some fantasy bites here by mentioning that theories may need simulation and modelling, when finally, they will find a near-infinite matrix of misperceptions and misinterpretations as the cause of these phenomena. Perhaps this is just paying for lip service? He did not need to state this at this stage, but stating this right now leaves him in a good place (on second thoughts, he wants to say that before they ask him), but it is meritorious to vouchsafe this claim: I should also state clearly for the record that in our research AARO has found no credible evidence thus far of extraterrestrial activity, off-world technology, or objects that defy the known laws of physics. He adds thus far to leave a door open to peoples fascination ... and, of course, to several more years of funding. Dr. Kirkpatrick advises: For those few cases that have been leaked to the public previously, and subsequently commented on by the U.S. Government, I encourage those who hold alternative theories or views to submit your research to credible peer-reviewed scientific journals. AARO is working to do the same. That is how science works, not by blog or social media. Not sure if he refers to skeptical critique or to positive endorsement for the anomaly content of any UAP event, or both. In any case, this would be the correct procedure, provided there would be scientific and technical journals willing to accept papers on UFOs or UAP. However, sometimes, researchers finding explanations to UAP incidents may not be willing to make the effort to formalize their informal scientific evaluations (released in blogs and websites) to the level of formal papers, among other things, because there are so many cases studied! At the same time, AARO should have a mailbox open to receive informal input from researchers. Dr. Kirkpatrick adds: By its very nature, the UAP challenge has for decades lent itself to mystery, sensationalism, and even conspiracy. For that reason, AARO remains committed to transparency, accountability, and to sharing as much with the American public... Rational thinking, certainly. It is good that he declares he is aware of the sensationalism and conspiracy essence of ufology. Now we know he knows. And that will help to guide his UAP research. Again, he requests time and explains that accurate investigation is a long process: However, AAROs work will take time if we are committed to doing it right. It means adhering to the scientific method and the highest standards of research integrity. It means being methodical and scrupulous. It means withholding judgment in favor of evidence. It means following the data where it leads, wherever it leads. It means establishing scientific, peer reviewed theoretical underpinnings of observed data. AARO is committed to those standards. Excellent public commitments. We could not agree more. Before turning to the question period, Dr. Kirkpatrick walked the audience through some high-integrity analysis transparencies. The following chart represents the trend analysis of all the cases in AARO holdings to date. The histogram on the left shows all reported cases as a function of altitude: Most of our sightings occur in the 15 to 25000 foot range and that is ultimately because that's where a lot of our aircraft are. Which is consistent with the fact that most observations are airborne. Do not forget that the 2022 AARO annual report indicated that over 50% of cases were identified as That is reinforced now: according to this slide, the robot portrait of a UAP is a round object of size 1 to 4 meters, translucent or white. Impressive-looking spacecraft! Regarding other variables like performance and signatures, AARO must learn not to mix apples with pears, and separate statistics by type of attributed phenomenon. For example, how much do the reported features of attributed objects (i.e. balloons or drones) differ from those of non-attributed objects (UAP)? There is no such thing as typical characteristics when you study UFOs. Consider a zoo with giraffes, ostriches, and chimps -what is the average or typical animal? A long-necked furry biped: a creature that does not exist. With regard to radio frequency emissions, for instance: would not objects transmitting radio frequencies be of human manufacture? The 1-3GHz is part of the UHF band, with very varied applications, including aeronautical communications. As far as thermal signature, medium and short-wave infrared radiation is related to any temperature over environmental temperature, like aircraft nozzle, flares... or Chinese lanterns. I hope the next set of AARO statistics show higher sophistication, focused centrally on discriminated data. Next, Kirkpatrick presented slides of two cases that we've declassified recently. And even more curious to recognize as a supposedly representative and typically anomalous UAP event the 16-sec footage from a drones camera, taken on 2022 in an undisclosed location in the Middle East, with basic data erased from the released video. have expected to see truly unexplainable images defying state-of-the-art aviation. Or at least an event from the fields of Texas! Will we have to wait for the next hearing? Three frames of the video clip showing the flying spherical object. Enlargements of the object. This is an MQ-9 drone showing the passage of an apparent spherical object captured by electro-optical sensors (not IR). Youll see it come through the top of the screen, there it goes and then the camera will slew to follow it you'll see it pop in and out of the [...] field of view there, Kirkpatrick explains. And he continues: This is essentially all of the data we have associated with this event from some years ago. It is going to be virtually impossible to fully identify that just based off of that video. Now what we can do and what we are doing is keeping that as part of that group of 52 percent [above chart, full percentage for globe-shaped objects] to see what are the similarities -what are the trends across all of these. Do we see these in a particular distribution? Do they all behave the same or not? As we get more data we will be able to go back and look at these in a fuller context. Probably it is impossible to identify the origin of this object but probably it is possible to determine its nature, with the data at hand. Without access to the actual data, I have requested some investigators specializing in case analysis to provide some research entry. And this is what they have found out. According to the high-resolution footage contributed by The Black Vault, the date was July 12, 2022 and time was 21:56Z. Assuming that the North indicator is correct, the shadows in the video show that the illumination is coming from the ESE. It is estimated the elevation of the light source to be between 50 and 60 (shadows are nearly horizontal and almost as long as the objects that cast them). With the Moon indeed much lower in the sky and in the SSW or SW at that day and hour, therefore the time mentioned must be wrong. A well-educated guess is that the time was closer to 9:56 a.m., local time (6:56Z). At that time, the Sun would have been in the right place for, say, Mosul, Iraq, location where a similar orb' was imaged in April 2016. Assuming the drones flight level is 7.6 km (the MQ-9 operational height), and considering that, if it were on the ground, the size of the UAP would be approximately 50 cm