A Preliminary Analysis Of 125 Reports Of

A Preliminary Analysis of 125 Reports of Orange Luminous Spheroid UAP Adyson Wright Rev. April 2017 A witness in Adelaide, South Australia, observed 3 yellow-orange lights moving in a triangle formation moving across the sky, and watched as they began slowly making a circle while continuing on their flight path. The witness called to his wife and they watched as the lights moved in a circle at variable speeds of fast and slow. They moved to the front road for a better unobstructed view, and called to some neighbours to see. 6-8 total witnesses were now watching the lights. More lights showed up and joined the circle, some lights flying together and some flying independently, appearing to interact with each other as they flew at high speeds. After a few minutes, each light shot out in different directions towards the sky at high speed and disappeared. - Excerpt from report OLS95 Reporting coverage is improving in UAP studies. Accessible internet has found its way into the hands of many people globally, and the internet is a reporting platform with much improvement since the earlier days of submitting witness reports through the mail or telephone. However, reporting agencies are still not widely known. A reporting agency is only as successful as its omnipresence, so if a witness is unaware of any, then they wont be able to report their sighting. They may perhaps choose to share their experience on social media networks, such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. So what is to be done with the reports that didnt make it to reporting and investigative agencies, but made it to social media? Researchers and investigators would be of a right mind to begin taking advantage of such reports. Table of Contents Introduction Page 2 Evaluative Method Page 3 Summary of Results Page 4 Analysis Page 6 Conclusion Page 9 Reports Page 9 Sources Page 46 Acronym for Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Introduction This study was an effort in collecting UFO reports from an online community, specifically a UFO subcommunity on Reddit . Nearly 150 reports were found, and after review of the material, 125 reports were included for analysis. To narrow the scope of the study, only reports of orange spherical/elliptical objects that appear to luminesce were collected. Each report was categorized by UFO shape, colour, number of individual objects, and UFO behaviour. Some tags appeared regularly in each category, and were counted and included for analysis. A System of Classification and Reliability Indicators formulated by Jacques Vallee was used in evaluating the reliability of the source and the probability of a natural explanation for each report. Reports were unfortunately not investigated for this study, just collected, reviewed, and analyzed. Witnesses can be contacted through their usernames on Reddit, but this preliminary study was insightful in finding a balance between the amount of information accumulated and time spent in correspondence with the witness. Thorough and intense investigation of each report is necessary to supplement this study. URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/ Evaluative Method Values were given to each report to indicate the reliability of the source and the probability of a natural explanation for the report. This was accomplished with Vallees SVP Credibility Rating, which is described in the paper A System of Classification and Reliability Indicators for the Analysis of the Behaviour of Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon by Jacques Vallee . The SVP Credibility Rating indicates the weight of a particular UFO report on a 0-4 scale, based on the Source reliability, Visitation of the site, and the Probability of a natural explanation. Because this particular study did not investigate or communicate with the witness, the SVP Credibility Rating was limited to source reliability and probability of a natural explanation, since visitation to the site didnt happen. Because the witness wasnt met with, the reliability of the source will remain 0 or unknown unless the report included the credentials or relevant education/experience of the witness. Reliability of the source 0 - is used for an unknown source, or an unreliable source. +0.5 - when multiple witnesses are present (Not a part of Vallees original system). 1 - is for a report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. 2 - is from a credible source, second hand. 3 - is from a credible source, first hand. 4 - is a firsthand personal interview with the witness, by a source of proven reliability. Probability of natural explanations 0 - is used when the data is consistent with one or more natural causes. 1 - means that a natural explanation only requires slight alteration of the data. 2 - means that a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. 3 - means that a natural explanation demands gross alteration of several parameters. 4 - means that no natural explanation is possible, given the evidence. Results of Probability The probability of a natural explanation is probably the most important evaluative tool we have for these past uninvestigated reports. An effort was made to determine how many reports had a low probability of a natural explanation. Paper: Vallee, Jacques F. (2007) A System of Classification and Reliability Indicators for the Analysis of the Behaviour of Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon. Using the 0-4 scale in indicating the probability of natural explanations for a report, it is apparent that most sightings are more in the middle of the scale, commonly a probability of 1 or 2. This suggests that sightings of orange luminous spheroid UAP arent entirely bizarre, but they dont necessarily have easy conventional explanations either. Investigation would produce more reliable information, and undoubtedly improve evaluation of the sighting. Summary of Results Appearance In review of the 125 UAP reports included in this study, specific descriptions of the appearance of UAP are regular, allowing the set of reports to be broken into 5 distinct categories: Spheroid - the object appear uniformly circular, with perceived depth. Discoid - the object appear roundish, but possibly flat. Light - the object appear only as a light, with uncertainty of the objects dimensions. Fireball - the object appear like that of a flaming meteorite. Other - the object has a different, less common appearance. The Spheroid category consists of 3 regular descriptions: Ball, Orb, and Sphere. In total, there were 54 spheroid reports. Occasionally, a spheroid report may be considered to be in the Light category, and vice versa. Interpretation is made as to the distinctions between a small glowing spheroid and a light. The Discoid category has 2 regular descriptions, Circle and Oval, with a total of 8 discoid The Light category includes all reports where the object(s) were described as a light, with a total of 48 light reports. The Fireball category has a total of 9 reports. The Other category consists of 5 reports with no fitting object description (due to lack of information or the strangeness of the report), and 1 report where the object was described like a Of the 125 reports, The most common description of appearance is Spheroid and Light. Number of Objects The number of unidentified objects in each report was included for measure. Sightings with only 1 object were incredibly common, and reports of up to 3 objects were also regular. A few reports had described incidents of 2 dozen objects, and 1 reports had as many as 40 objects reports. Orange luminous spheroid UAP are apparently quite common individually, and in groups. Multiple Witness Reports Out of the 125 reports, 47 involved multiple eyewitnesses. The reports were key to improving the reliability of the study. When analyzing the bulk of reports, only those with multiple witnesses and a probability rating of 2 or greater were used. There were 33 that met those requirements (fig. 4). Using those reports, a greater confidence is obtained that sightings of conventional objects have been excluded from analysis, and any results reflect solely potential anomalous objects. OLS Reports with Multiple Witnesses and a Probability of 2 or Greater Spheroid Discoid Light Fireball Distribution of Appearance Similar to the results of all 125 reports, of those with multiple witnesses and a probability rating of 2 or greater, descriptions of spheroid objects and lights are significantly more present. With a probability rating of 2 or greater, natural explanations such as chinese lanterns, stars, or fireworks are harder to apply to the reports, especially with the presence of another witness to observe and evaluate the unidentified object. Distribution of Behaviours Specific behaviour characteristics were regularly observed in each report, behaviours that are unfamiliar, impressive, and bizarre. Objects were seen vanishing and appearing, releasing and absorbing lights, erratic movements, and rapid accelerations. These are the descriptions of behaviour characteristics that appear when using reports with multiple witnesses and a probability rating of 2 or higher: Formation - Objects appear or move in a particular formation, commonly triangle, diamond, and in a line. MOI (Multiple Object Interaction) - Multiple objects appear to interact with each other. RD (Rapid Departure) - Objects leave the vicinity at very high speeds, often instantaneously. Rel/Abs - Objects are seen releasing or absorbing other objects/lights. Sync - Objects moving synchronously together. Turn - Object makes noticeable and definite turning motions. Van/App - Objects seem to vanish and appear. Zigzag - Object is seen making zigzag motions. Commonly observed behaviour characteristics are rapid departure, and objects moving in sync and in formation. Some overlap is made between reports of sync and formation, as objects might travel together before or after moving into formation. The turn characteristic is important, because it represents objects that arent carried naturally in wind, like clouds, lanterns, balloons, or flares, whereas the sync and formation characteristics could be applied to such natural explanations. Conclusion In its effort to collect usable UAP reports from an online community, this study was able to identify and categorize usable information from each report and find regular patterns and features, despite no correspondence with the witness. This shows that bulk online reports can be evaluated and labelled in depth to enter into a databases, or for priority for investigation. However, only investigated reports will yield the most confident and reliable data. How much information can be potentially collected from online sources, and how much of it is reliable? How can a report from an unknown source be tracked down for investigation? There is a need for a new type of UFO researcher. A hardworking individual (or group of) to collect these online reports, part field agent and part administrator, and organize investigators to travel to the site which may be across the globe, Definitions of Behaviour Characteristics Blink Object appears to blink. Drip fire Object appears to drip fire or other substance. Fade Object appears to fade, or change in opacity. Formation Objects appear or move in a particular formation, commonly triangle, diamond, and in a line. MOI (Multiple Object Interaction) Multiple objects appear to interact with each other. RD (Rapid Departure) Objects leave the vicinity at very high speeds, often instantaneously. Rel/Abs Objects are seen releasing or absorbing other objects/lights. Sync Objects moving synchronously together. Turn Object makes noticeable and definite turning motions. Van/App Objects seem to vanish and appear. Zigzag Object is seen making zigzag motions. Reports Listed by Reference ID Shape Colour Number Behaviour Fireball Red-Orange 6 Diamond formation, Reliability: 1.5, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability, with multiple witnesses. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter 4 witnesses observed 5-7 red-orange coloured fireballs over the San Francisco Bay area while driving at around 10:20 in the evening. They stopped the car to get a better look at the fireballs and try to capture them. Unfortunately video recordings werent good quality. One witness was able to view the fireballs with binoculars. Another driver had reportedly seen the fireballs and gotten out his car, helping the witnesses spot them. The fireballs moved in a vertical diamond formation before breaking away from each other. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Ball Orange 1 RD Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 3, a natural explanation demands gross alteration of several parameters. A backpacker was camping alone in a National Park near Wellington on the North Island of New Zealand. He was watching the night sky when he noticed an orange light flashing in the forest. It looked like a large orange ball floating in the trees about a meter off of the ground. The ball appeared to be two meters in size. It slowly began to move before stopping over the trees. After a few seconds, it shot away fast into the sky like a laser beam or cannonball and disappeared. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 6 Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 1, a natural explanation only requires slight alteration of the data. 6 orange lights were observed around 11:15 coming from the water in South Myrtle Beach. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 2 Reliability: 1.5, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability, with multiple witnesses. Probability: 0, data is consistent with one or more natural causes. A woman saw a number of orange lights flying in the sky, and phoned her husband, who was able to see 2 orange lights flying east low on the horizon. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Ball Orange 3 Vanish, MOI Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. 3 solid glowing orange balls were observed in central Florida and appeared to be dancing with each other before blinking out almost simultaneously. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Red-Orange 2 Vanish, MOI Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. A candy apple red light and a larger orange light were seen in 2009. On 2 consecutive nights, the red light was seen slowly moving across the sky, pausing for a few seconds before disappearing. On a third night, the red light and larger orange light had met at a point, and the witness observed what appeared to be an energy exchange between the two lights. The red light disappeared, and the orange light lifted up at a moderate rate of speed and vanished. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Orb Orange 1 RD Reliability: 1.5, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability, with multiple witnesses. Probability: 3, a natural explanation demands gross alterations of several parameters. A father and son had witnessed an orange orb floating high in the night sky. They watched it make quick and erratic movements that they felt no aircraft or machine could match. After a few moments of hovering and shaking, the orange sphere left at an incredible speed. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 1 Turn Reliability: 3, is from a credible source, first hand. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. An orange light appearing to be larger than a star was seen moving slowly (estimated 40 mph) across the sky at about a 500-600 feet altitude. After a while, it seemed to flare brightly and turned 90 degrees away from the witness and took off like a shooting star. Witness had once been a licensed pilot, and is familiar with the planes in the flight path above the house where he saw the light. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 1 RD, Zigzag Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. An orange light the approximate size of a star was seen zigzagging across the sky before shooting off past the horizon. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 1 RD, Zigzag Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. An orange light was observed slowly moving in southwest Wisconsin when it sped up and moved in a zagzag pattern before bolting over the hills at high speed. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 2 Sync, Zigzag Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. A witness in Reno had watched 2 objects at around 10 at night moving in a slow zigzag motion in sync with each other. After one object slowly departed in the direction it came from, the witness stopped his car to watch the second object depart a few minutes later. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Light Orange 1 Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 1, a natural explanation only requires slight alteration of the data. A North Fort Myers Florida witness had seen an orange light moving with irregular speed, where it would continuously speed up, then slow down, then speed up again. It continued in this manner until it was out of sight. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Sphere Orange 3 Sync, RD, Triangle Reliability: 1, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability. Probability: 3, a natural explanation demands gross alterations of several parameters. In the evening of the summer months of 1988, on the South Coast of England, a stargazing witness had seen 2 orange globes in the sky, and was quickly joined by another orange globe. They formed an equally spaced triangle almost above the witness. They appeared to be 1000 meters above the witness, and were the size of a penny at arms length. After a few seconds, they shot away at an incredible speed. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Ball Orange 1 Reliability: 1.5, report attributed to a source of unknown reliability, with multiple witnesses. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would demand gross alteration of one parameter. Between 1982 and 1984, an orange ball that gave the appearance of being lit from the inside was witnessed by multiple families in a village in Romania. The ball appeared larger than the full moon, and was even viewed with binoculars. It eventually disappeared over a hill. Shape Colour Number Behaviour Ball Red-Orange 1 Reliability: 3, is from credible source, first hand. Probability: 2, a natural explanation would de