The available tiles will be coded and punched cards \tJill be prepared. Hben cards for the sighting reports for one year are completed, preltminary statistical studies will begin. The results of these studies t-llll be used to appraise the adequacy of all the forms and codes which devised. Necessary corrections and additions will be made after this limited st\Kly. Then, the remaining sighting reports \Jill be analyzed statistically ~UNCLASSIFIED SECUR lTV IN FORMATION 32. In the following sketch, imagine thot you are at the point shown. Place an A" on the curved I ine to show how high the object was above the horizon (skyline) when you first saw it. Place a "B" on the same curved line to show how high the object was above the horizon (skyline) when you last saw it 33. In the following larger sketch plac e an "A" at the position the object was when you first saw it, and a "B" at its posit ion when you last saw it. Refer to smaller sketch as an example of how to complete the larger sketch UNCLASSIFIED 34. What were the weather conditions at the time you saw the object? CLOUDS (Circle One) 34.2 WIND (Circle One) a. Clear sky a. No wind Slight breeze c. Scattered clouds c. Strong wind d. Thick or heavy clouds Don't remember e. Don't remember 35. When did you report to some offic ia I that you had seen the object? Month Yeor 36. Was anyone else with you at the time you saw the object? (Circle One) Yes No 36.1 IF you answered YES, d id they see the object too? (Circle One) Yes No 36.2 Please list their names and addresses : 37. Was this the first time that you had seen an object or objects I ike this? (Circle One) 37.1 IF you answered NO, then when, where, and under what circumstances d id you see other ones? 38. In your opinion what do you think the object was and what might have caused it? E D UNCLASSIFIED 39. Do you think you con estimate the speed of the object? (Circle One) IF you answered YES, then what speed would you esti mate? 40. Do you think you can estimate how far away from you the object was? (Circle One) Yes IF you answered YES, then how for away would you say it was? 41. Please g ive the following information about yourself: F irst Name Middle Name City Zone State TELEPHONE NUMBER _ Please indicate any s pecial educational trai n i ng that y ou hove had Grode school e. e. Technical school b. H igh school f. Ot her special train ing d. Post graduate 42. Date you completed this q uestionnaire: SECURII y UNCLASSIFIED U. S. A I R f 0 R C E TECH HI CAL I H F 0 R MAT I 0 H SHEET (SUMMARY DATA) In order that your information may be filed and coded as accurately as possible, please use the following space to write out a short description of the event that you observed. You may re peat information that you have already given in the questionnaire, and add any further comments, statements, or sketches that you believe are important. Try to present the deta i Is of the observa tion in the order in which they occurred. Additional pages of the same size paper may be attached if they are needed (Do Not Write in This Space) (Please Print) UNCLASSlF\ED NCLP ~,slF\E.D SEVENTH STATUS REPORT CONTRACT AF-19741, PPS-100 AIR TECHNICAL I~'TELLIGENCE CENTER 'LrvRI GIT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE November 10, 1952 TABLE OF CON'l'ENI'S ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SIGHTING REPORTS J. ANALYSIS OF SOIL AND VEGETATION SANPLES CONSULTANT ON ASTRONCMY INTERRO~TION FORMS SEVENTH STATUS REPORT CONTRACT AF-19741 AIR TECHNICAL I NrELLI CENCE CENTER rm!GHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE November 10, 1952 This report describes progress for the period from October 11, 1952, to November 10, 1952. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SIGITING REPORTS Sighting reports dated up to and including June, 1952, have been processed. Except for the reports dated 1947 and 1948, all sighting reports up to and including March, 1952, have been evaluated. The sighting reports for 1947 and 1948 are not available for evaluation. As soon as the 1947 and 1948 reports are available and can be evaluated, all sighting reports for the years 1947 to 1951 will be ready as a group for preliminary analysis utilizing IBM equipment Sighting reports for the month of July, 1952, have been received. Because there are 450 sighting reports for July, processing them will not be until the first week in December. Evaluation of reports for the months of April, May, June, and July, 1952, will require about six days of con- ference time. Conferences for the evaluation of si~hting reports will be arranged as reports become processed in groups of 200. Each group of reports will require about two days of work for a cooperating researcher-\~AFB evaluation team. The evaluation of 1952 reports will be more time consuming than was the case for earlier reports, because reports now are in more detail and often consist of sightings of one object by more than one individual. Since October 16, 1952, it has been necessary to establish a rotation system for handling sighting reports, no more than 100 sighting reports being permitted away from HPAFB at any one time. Questionnaires and work sheets com- pleted here must therefore be put in duplicate folders before sighting reports matching these questionnaires and work sheets are returned to r~AFB in return for unprocessed sighting reports. When evaluation conferences are held, these folders must be matched before an evaluation is made. The necessity for estab- lishing a rotation system has caused some delay in progress. ANALYSIS OF SOIL AND VErnTATION SA!VIPLES Two samples of vegetation and soil from Pittsburgh, Kansas, which submitted by WPAFB for analysis, have been thoroughly studied. Examination by experts on soil and vegetation disclosed no difference between the two samples from the two areas where the specimens were obtained. Tests for radio- activity likewise showed no significant difference between the two samples of soil and vegetation. Tests were made for beta, gamma, and alpha radiation. Samples of the Kansas" soil and the vegetation will be returned to WPAFB in the near future. CONSULTANT ON ASTRONa-1Y Dr. J. Allen Hynek, of Ohio State University, attended the Boston of the Optical Society of America on October 11, 1952. The Society took cognizance this year of the many reports of unusual aerial f henomena by including three invited papers on the subject in their otherwise straightforward scientific meeting. One of the invited papers was by Dr. Hynek, entitled "Unusual Aerial Phenomena". The other two papers were by Drs. 1'1enzel and Liddell, of Harvard Observatory and the Atomic nergy Commission, respectively. The papers of Menzel and Liddell, though differing somewhat in con- tent, were identical in spirit. Both papers were characterized by the fact that numerous explanations for unexplained siBhtings were given without a single reference to a specific sit,hting in the files of the Air Technical In- telligence Cornmand. Both papers presented a series of well-worn statements as to how jet fighters, meteors, reflections from balloons and aircraft, and optical effects, such as sundogs and mirages, could give rise to "flying saucer" reports. Since there was nothing new in either of the two papers, the trip from that s tandpoint was unproductive. The paper by Dr. Hynek, in essence, was to the effect that flying saucers represented a science-public relations problem that when a sighti is made by several people , at least one of whom is an experienced observer, the mutually corroborated reports are entitled t o a scientific hearing, rather than ridicule. It stressed the point that here was a subject in which the public has shown grea t interest. It was recomrnended that the r elatively few well-screened reports be dealt with specifically to see whether any of t he causes sugf~ested by Drs. Liddell and Menzel are applicable, and, if so, to make this known in these specific instances. On the other hand, if the suggested explanations of Drs. Liddell and Menzel do not explain well-screened cases, this should also be made known and given further sci entific study. UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY INFORMATION In conclusion, it was the opinion of Dr. Hynek that little was gained bj attendance at the meeting. The results ,.;ere negative in the sense that it was confirmed, as Dr. Hynek already believed, that Drs. Liddell and Menzel had not studied the literature and the evidence and, hence, were not qualified to speak with authority on the subject of recent sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena. An attempt to arran~e a meeting by Dr. Hynek wi. th Dr. lVlenzel, Dr. Liddell, and Dr. Billing~ after the meeting was over, was unsuccessful b~cause Liddell and Billings both had to leave immediately after the meeting IN1'ERRO~TION FORMS Five hundred copies of the "U. S . Air Force Technical Information Sheet" (Form A and Form B) were delivered t o vJPAFB on October 20, 1952. This questionnaire was used in place of the "Tentative Observers Data Sheet" to record data on all sighting reports dated after March 31, 1952. I t has proved to be more satisfactory than the previous f or m, es-pecially from t he standpoint of recordi ng data from sighti ng reports i n gr eat er detail. Addi tional copies of the "U. S. Air Forc e Technical Infon na t i on Sheet" ca n be supplied to }~AFB as needed. FUTURE WORK Coding and evaluation of 1952 sight i ng reports will continue . A preliminary analysis of data on all sight i ng reports dated previous t o 1952 will be given to ~AFB as s oon as possibl e aft er evaluati on is c ompl et ed of the 1947 and 1948 sighting reports. By December 10 1952, all sighting reports dated before June 15, 1952, should be processed and evaluated, ready for Im~ analysis. Complete Im~ analysie or all sighting reports will not be started until all reports dated previous to 19S3 are processed and evaluated. Because of the nature of the work required, and the fact that the number of reports for the last three months of 1952 is not yet known, no estimate can be given as to the time final IBM analysis will begin. It is hoped, if the frequency of sighting reports follows the present decreasing trend, that complete IBM analysis for sightings dated through 1952 may be started by February 1, 1953. Vl'-1E: eg November 20, 1952 S C lJ l~ l T Y I ~ FOR ,t1 A 1-1 0 N December 15, 1952 Mr. Miles E. Goll Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Dear Mr. Goll: This letter report describes progress for the period from November 11, 1952, to December 10, 1952. Sighting reports up to and including July 25, 1952, have been processed. Except for r eports dated 1947 and 1948, all sighting reports up to and including June, 1952, have been evaluated. The sighti ng reports for 1947 and 1948 were r eturned from Harvard University on November 20. Because the reports and the forms which had been filled in and placed with the folders v-rere mixed up, these r eports will not be ready for evaluation until about December 15. Two evaluation conferences of two days each were hel d during this report period, on November 12 and 13, and on December 3 and 4. During the report period, evaluation has been more difficult tha n for- ly, because the amount and quality of data i n the avera ge r eport have increased. Evaluation conferences will be scheduled in the future as reports are available. The rotation system for handling sighting r eports , wher eby no more than 100 sighting r eports are permitted away f rom WPAFB at any one time, has functioned -vri th a minimmn of delay. Coding and evaluation of 1952 sighting reports will continue. The preliminary analysis of data on all sighting reports dated before 1952 will begin as soon as the 1947 and 1948 reports ca n be straightened out and evaluated. Results of this analysis will be given to WPAFB at the earliest possibl e time. It is hoped that the results wil l be avail- able by January 1, 1953. By about Januar,y 15, 1953, all sighti ng r eports dated before August 10, 1952, will probably be processed and evaluated, ready for IBM analysis. Dr. J. Allen Hynek, The Ohio State University, gave advice con- cerning several sighting r eports during the r eport period. c: Capt. F. H. McGovern Very truly y ours, William T. Reid Supervisor SECLJRtTY INFORMATION UNCL.ASSlr 1EP Mr. Miles E. Ooll SECURITY \NFORMATlO wright-Patterson Air Force Base Dear Mr. Ooll: Januarr 23, 1953 This letter report de scribes progress for the period from December 11, 1952, to January 10, 19.53. Sighting reports have now been processed up to and including August 10, 1952. Evaluation of sighting reports has been completed for sightinga up to and including July 15, 1952. Reports for 1947 and 1948 were evaluatedJ these reports had been at Harvard University, and thus had not been evaluated in chronological order. In our previous letter to you, dated December 15, 19.52, it was stated that a preliminary analysis of data fran al 1 sighting reports made before 1952 would begin as soon as possible after the 1947 and 1948 reports were reprocessed and evaluated. It had been hoped that results of the preliminary analysis would be avail- able b,y January 1, 1953. This has not been possible, because of tbe ex- tensive work re~1ired in reprocessing the 1947 and 1948 sighting reports after their return from Harvard University. Reprocessing of these reports required more time than anticipated, because many of our forms had been lost. This has delayed our consideration of the 1952 sighting reports. One two-day evaluation conference was held during this report period, on December 17 and 18, 1952. As mentioned in the last progress report, evaluation of later sighting reports has been more difficult than for earlier ones. Preliminary analysis by IBM machines of data from sighti ng reports dated before 1952 will begin January 20, 1953. Results of this analysis will be sent to 'WPAFB as soon as they are available. The results will be reported informallY first to Captain Ruppelt, as he has requested. Later, they will be included in a routine progress report. Coding and evaluation of 1952 sighting reports is continuing, with evaluation conferences scheduled as they are necessar.y. All sighting reports dated prior to August 25, 1952, should be processed by Febru~ 15, ~he period of August 10 to 25, 1952, was one during which a large number of sighting reports was receivedJ By this same date, all reports dated before August 1, 1952, are expected to be evaluated. Very truly yours, UNCLASSIFIE:D cc: Maj. L. G. Whi~iilPURI '"Y INFORMATION or t ho period fr . ht .. ,a t an .valuati on of si ht g repor t s .!~ b en c l l e t ed for el.imin i Im , chi n ~ of t "om ai 1t n 1eport da d bofor 19~2 bee-an on Jan 26_, 19.5.3. Thic ,.,or.~' 11. and tn of the " n 't s :ls will b fonr~ ed infor L,.Y c ptail. Rupp lt 8fi fJOOll ro they arc avail blc . Wl~ t (10: 'al tion CO Or DC 'l e l d d ,.. .. ll thiO rt peri , on J niJB.l~ 22 a.ru. 23 19.53. Be ... n.use ont r o l' B r : rescntut v was a vrdl ble to part icipate i n th co or ~-less t n t 10 o 1 nmoWlt of rror' ~as accanpl hed. (Usoolly, 0 t,o 200 Ctl.BCG can " evaluated durin tt ev uation con.f r ~nee. On Jan 22 ana 23, C ovalua.t on of 1952 G ht r or s i con uin\.ting, with evaluation co ran e ache ed 8.3 thoy era ccessary. All fli ehti ng or or rcraAininC for t l e year 1952 1 ould he pr ocessed by , h 15, 195) . By thaL s dat .. all sightine r I or da.t pr ior to S tenbol" 1 nre c: c ted t be valun.t d . G. hl.tch r :ill 12m 1 aid Sup rvJ. or SECURITY I UNCL SSl 1 A oampleted copy of the Tentative Observer's Data Sheet is shown in Exhibit I. Two uses for this form are antioipated. First, filed sighting reports ~ill be analyzed to extract facts to be entered on this form far coding. Second, l-lhen tests establish the adequacy of the form, it may be used directly by observers in recording sighting reports. This latter use will conserve ttme now expended in extracting information fran the present reports for coding on the punched cards. C. odins Scheme The coding scheme is illustrated in Exhibit II, This oom .... plated enclosure is to serve as an intermediate bet~een the observer's report and the punched-card abstract of' the facts on the sighting, In most oases, the facts on the sighting are not entered on the punched directly. In some cases, intervening steps require only coding, while in others calculations or analyses also may be involved. Prior to discussing the uses to which the punched cards will be put, it should be emphasized that the facts represented include: 1. Those presently on the standard form, 2. Those suggested by the Sponsor, and 3. Those suggested by the panel As might be expected, many more entries are proposed than have been previously. IN fORMATION UNCLASSlFlED SECURITY I A typical completed punched card ia includod for reference in Exhib~ .:til. This onrd should be comPftr.ed with the observer's data sheet for this sighting, prepared tran the original report. The data sheet is the completed one described previously. From the inforiMtion entered on the punched cards, it will be possible to analyze many characteristics of sightings. (See Exhibit IV.) Some of these may be obvious, others are subtle, but all seem interesting. The planning of statistical studies is necessarily incomplete . However, some examples may suggest the possible scope of study. Studies have been planr.ed to reveal the variation in sighting activity \Jith time and position. The time of sightings in conjunction l-Jith the geographical location ~ill be used in several ways. First, time wUl permit correlation or sightings t-Ji th astronanica